October Stainless Steel Sheet Prices Expected to Remain Range-Bound
Introduction
In September, China’s economic stimulus policies continued to gain traction, while the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, providing support for global economic recovery and easing deflationary pressure. China’s manufacturing PMI rose 0.4% month-on-month to 49.8%, indicating a modest rebound in industrial activity.
As China prepares for key policy meetings in October, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) introduced a ¥500 billion policy-backed financial instrument to strengthen project investment and boost market confidence. However, persistent global uncertainties—such as potential U.S. government shutdown risks and new tariff actions—continue to weigh on trade-dependent industries.
Under these mixed conditions, stainless steel sheet prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in October, supported by stable raw material costs but restrained by oversupply and subdued downstream demand.
Macroeconomic Environment
Domestic Policy Support
China’s latest fiscal and monetary measures are intended to stabilize growth, sustain investment, and improve market liquidity. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will further define long-term development goals, potentially influencing infrastructure and manufacturing demand for stainless steel sheet.
Global Monetary Conditions
The Federal Reserve’s potential rate cut on October 30 could elevate medium-term inflation expectations, which may indirectly support commodity prices, including stainless steel sheet. However, supply chain disruptions and weak export orders continue to challenge global demand recovery.
Raw Material Market Trends
Nickel
Nickel prices traded sideways in September, influenced by mixed supply and demand fundamentals. Ferro-nickel rose from ¥940/nickel to ¥955/nickel, driven by tighter supply and industry restocking. Production costs remain around ¥980–1,000/nickel in China and ¥915/nickel in Indonesia.
Looking forward, Indonesia’s mining policy adjustments may slightly lift ore prices. Yet, with global nickel oversupply and slow consumption recovery, nickel-based stainless steel sheet costs are likely to remain stable to slightly firm in October.
Chromium
High-carbon ferrochrome prices increased by ¥200 in September to ¥8,500–8,600 per 50 base tons, supported by cost pressures and higher tender prices from major mills. While imports remain limited, cost support and high stainless steel production levels continue to underpin the market.
The restart of Inner Mongolia Mintuo may add around 50,000 tons/month, easing supply concerns. As a result, ferrochrome prices—and by extension, chrome-containing stainless steel sheet prices—are expected to stay stable in October.
Stainless Steel Sheet Market Dynamics
Production Trends
In September, China’s stainless steel crude output rose by 155,000 tons to 3.52 million tons, while Indonesia’s output increased slightly to 435,000 tons, bringing total supply to 3.955 million tons.
October output in China is expected to rise by 10,000 tons, while Indonesia’s may drop by the same amount, keeping combined production flat month-on-month. Despite some mills signaling production cuts, competition remains fierce, and real reductions are likely to be minimal.
Demand Outlook
Seasonal demand recovery in the construction, appliance, and manufacturing sectors remained limited in September. Earlier restocking and cautious sentiment among buyers kept stainless steel sheet demand weak. The National Day holiday in early October shortens effective sales cycles, making a strong “Silver October” rebound unlikely.
Even with supportive macro policies, the downstream transmission effect will take time. As a result, demand for stainless steel sheet is projected to remain weak but stable in October.
Inventory Situation
Stainless steel sheet inventories began to rise again in late September. With production still high and demand lackluster, stockpiling pressure is expected to intensify through October, adding to overall market imbalance.
Price Trends and Market Outlook
In September, stainless steel sheet prices remained volatile around ¥12,800/ton. Prices of 304 cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel sheet firmed initially due to tight supply and rising raw material costs but weakened later as inventories increased.
By the end of September:
304 Cold-Rolled Sheet (Private Mills): down ¥50 to ¥12,650/ton
304 Cold-Rolled Sheet (State/Joint Mills): up ¥150 to ¥13,800–13,900/ton
304 Hot-Rolled Sheet: up ¥150 to ¥12,650/ton
201J1 Cold-Rolled Sheet: up ¥50 to ¥7,850/ton
430 Cold-Rolled Sheet: up ¥150 to ¥7,700/ton
Looking ahead, October stainless steel sheet prices are expected to remain range-bound, with raw material costs providing a price floor while oversupply and soft consumption limit further gains.
Conclusion
In October, the stainless steel sheet market faces a delicate balance between policy-driven optimism and supply-side pressure. While nickel and chromium prices offer cost support, sluggish end-user demand and rising inventories continue to restrict upside potential.
Businesses should closely track nickel and ferrochrome trends, inventory changes, and production adjustments to anticipate short-term volatility. Overall, stainless steel sheet prices are likely to stay stable within a narrow range, reflecting both market resilience and structural oversupply.
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