March 24, 2026  ·  Steel Trade  ·  Government Policies  ·  Carbon Steel

Mexico Imposes Provisional Anti-Dumping Duty on Hot-Rolled Steel from China and Vietnam

Background: What Triggered This Measure?

In March 2025, Ternium — one of the largest flat-steel producers in Latin America — filed a formal anti-dumping complaint with Mexico's Ministry of Economy. The complaint alleged that Chinese and Vietnamese mills were exporting hot-rolled flat steel into Mexico at prices below their home-market cost.

After approximately one year of investigation, authorities gathered enough evidence to move forward. On March 23, 2026, the Ministry published its decision to impose provisional anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel from both countries. The measure applies immediately across 20 tariff lines.

For buyers who currently source hot-rolled steel from overseas suppliers, this is one of the most significant trade policy shifts in the Mexican market in recent years.

Products and HS Codes Covered

The order targets flat hot-rolled steel products, including coils, sheets, strips, and plates of both carbon steel and alloy steel. These are used widely in construction, automotive, heavy machinery, and industrial fabrication.

The following 20 HS codes fall within the scope of this AD order:

Ch. 7208 & 7211 = flat-rolled iron / non-alloy steel. Ch. 7225 & 7226 = flat-rolled alloy steel. Cold-rolled steel (HS 7209) is NOT included in this order.

Full Provisional Tariff Rate Breakdown

The Ministry assigned individual rates based on each producer's calculated dumping margin. Non-participating companies automatically receive the highest rate as a standard penalty.

At current market prices (~US$500–600/MT for hot-rolled coil), Chinese duties add an estimated 36–46% to landed costs. Vietnamese duties add approximately 33–34%. The cost impact is material and will ripple across the supply chain quickly.

Impact on Chinese and Vietnamese Exporters

The provisional AD duties will reshape trade flows into Mexico quickly. Here is who faces the most direct consequences:

• Major Chinese mills (Wuhan, Shanghai Meishan): Their products will be significantly more expensive for Mexican buyers overnight. The pricing gap will be very difficult to absorb.
• Non-participating Chinese exporters: These mills face the ceiling rate of US$0.2304/kg. Not engaging with the investigation was a costly decision.
• Vietnamese mills (Hoa Phat, Formosa Ha Tinh): Rates are lower than Chinese counterparts but still high enough to reduce competitiveness significantly.
• Mexican importers and procurement teams: Raw material costs for imported flat steel will rise. Open purchase orders should be reviewed immediately.
• Downstream industries (automotive, construction, appliances): Input cost increases will likely pass through the supply chain. Budgets should be revised for Q2 2026.

Alternative Sourcing Strategies for Buyers

Buyers who rely on Chinese or Vietnamese hot-rolled steel for the Mexican market have several practical options to manage this disruption:

• Domestic Mexican supply: Ternium operates large flat-rolled capacity inside Mexico. Buying domestically eliminates AD duty risk entirely and shortens lead times.
• Brazilian and Argentine mills: Producers like Gerdau and Ternium Argentina are competitive on flat-rolled products and are not subject to this order.
• Indian steel mills: India has expanded hot-rolled capacity significantly. Indian-origin steel is not covered by this measure and offers a cost-effective alternative.
• South Korean and Japanese mills: Strong quality reputations for flat-rolled products. Best for buyers with tighter specification requirements.
• Long-term contracts: Locking in fixed-price contracts now — before final duties are confirmed — reduces exposure to further price volatility.

Need help sourcing hot-rolled steel coil from duty-free origins? Our team can provide competitive quotes with full HS code compliance support.

Related Products and HS Code Reference

Not sure whether your product falls within the scope? Contact LYH Steel for a free HS code compliance check and sourcing consultation.

Broader Trade Context: A Global Trend

Mexico's move is part of a wider pattern of steel trade protection. In the same week, South Africa raised anti-dumping duties on structural steel from China and Thailand. The United States issued a preliminary AD ruling on South Korean heavy-walled steel pipes. Australia extended existing duties on Chinese rod in coil.

The direction is consistent: regulators on multiple continents are reinforcing barriers against low-priced Asian steel exports. For global buyers, building a diversified sourcing strategy is no longer optional — it is essential risk management.

LYH Steel helps buyers navigate changing trade regulations by offering duty-safe steel supply from multiple origins, with full documentation and HS code support.

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