Alright, let’s talk iron ore. Prices dipped slightly last Friday to ​​$104.35/ton\ast \ast –amodestpullbackafterhittingsix-monthhighsearlierintheweek.Buthere’swhatmatters:they’veheldabovethe\ast \ast$104/ton threshold​​ for two straight days. Year-to-date? We’re still looking at a solid ​​3.7% gain​​ despite all the market noise .

Now, the disconnect’s interesting. Chinese steel prices are rebounding, but demand? Still sluggish. Finished steel inventories just climbed for an eighth consecutive week, and late-August crude steel output dropped ​​8% month-on-month​​ to 1.95 million tons. That’s not exactly bullish for ore buyers .

So why aren’t prices crashing? Three factors propping things up:

1. ​Port inventories are lean​​ – down to five-year lows around ​​134 million tons​​ at Chinese hubs. That’s creating a natural price floor as mills restock on dips .
2. Supply discipline’s tightening​​. Major players like Rio Tinto faced weather disruptions, while Simandou’s Guinea project hit political snags – delaying that flood of new supply everyone feared .
3. ​​Policy optimism’s brewing​​. Traders are betting Beijing’s infrastructure stimulus (that ​​¥870 billion package​​) will eventually kick steel demand back into gear .

Short term? Expect choppy waters. Shipments from Australia/Brazil are ramping up, and Tangshan’s post-parade production restart could juice ore demand. But with China’s property sector still dragging – ​​new home starts down 20%+ this year​​ – sustained rallies look unlikely .

​​Bottom line​​: This ​​iron ore price stability​​ is a high-wire act. For mills and traders, it means playing the range: buy dips near $100,sellralliestoward$110. And keep one eye on Guinea – if Simandou ships hit as planned in November, the floor could drop fast .